ENSO Prediction:
Observational data indicate that the sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is currently in a cold phase. Model forecasts suggest that this cold anomaly will briefly shift to a warm phase in June 2025, before returning to a cold phase in August. From January 2026, the region is expected to experience a continuous warming trend, eventually developing into an El Niño event.
Indian Ocean Prediction:
Observational data show that the SST in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a warm phase. Model forecasts indicate that this warm anomaly will continue to intensify until October 2025. However, it will then begin to weaken and transition to a neutral-warm state, which is expected to persist until March 2027.
Global Climate Prediction:
In terms of temperature, most regions of the world are expected to be warmer than usual from the summer of 2025 to the spring of 2026. However, central and eastern Russia and Alaska are likely to experience anomalously cold conditions. Regarding precipitation, northern Eurasia and western Canada are expected to receive above-average rainfall, while the southwestern United States is likely to see below-average precipitation.
East Asian Climate Projection:
Model forecasts suggest that most regions of China will be warmer than usual from the summer of 2025 to the spring of 2026, with the northeastern region experiencing a more pronounced warming. Precipitation in northeastern China is expected to be above average, while the western regions are likely to receive less rainfall than usual.